Latest forecast on rice prices from now until the end of the year

The immediate export price of rice is not affected

According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, in the first 8 months of the year, rice exports reached more than 6.15 million tons, bringing in 3.85 billion USD. Compared to the same period last year, it increased by 5.8% in volume and 21.7% in turnover. Rice exports increased slightly in volume but increased sharply in turnover due to the average export rice price increasing by 14.8% over the same period in 2023, to 625 USD/ton.

The top main export markets of Vietnamese rice are: Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and China. Of which, in the first 8 months of 2024, Vietnam’s rice exports to Indonesia reached 913,888 thousand tons, worth 557.77 million USD, compared to the same period in 2023, an increase of 27.26% in volume and an increase of 54.40%. In value, accounting for 14.85% of the country’s total rice exports.

In the first 8 months of 2024, rice exports to the Malaysian market reached 582,872 thousand tons, worth 346 million USD, an increase of 2.12 times in volume and 2.53 times in turnover compared to the same period last year.
The world and domestic rice markets recently received news (September 13), according to a Government decree, India has removed the floor price for exported basmati rice to support farmers (capital). is facing difficulties due to debt and rising costs) promoting the export of this type of rice just a few weeks before entering the new harvest season. Last year, India set a floor price, the minimum export price, at 1,200 USD/ton and then lowered it to 950 USD/ton.

Faced with the Indian Government’s moves to relax rice exports, the question is how does this impact the operations of Vietnamese export enterprises, as well as domestic rice prices? Some opinions believe that any move by India to relax rice exports will cause rice prices in the international market to decrease significantly. However, in the immediate future, Vietnamese rice is not much affected.

Talking to reporters from Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Do Ha Nam – Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association – said that this will have little impact on Vietnamese rice prices. Because this is low-quality rice, it is mainly consumed in the African market.

Even in the case India lifts the rice export ban, Mr. Do Ha Nam assessed that this would not have much impact on domestic rice export prices. Because Indian rice varieties are different from Vietnam’s. Indian rice is mainly low-grade rice and exported to the African market. In Vietnam, most of the area has been converted to growing high-quality rice varieties and other Indian export market segments.

Sharing the same opinion on this issue, Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh – Director of Phuoc Thanh 4 Production and Trading Company Limited – said that if India reopens the low-grade rice market, Vietnamese rice will not be affected in the immediate future. Many, even the Fall-Winter crop that the Mekong Delta region is about to sow will not be significantly affected, because about 60 – 70% of the area of ​​this rice crop is planted by farmers with high quality rice varieties, such as RVT. , ST21 and ST25 for domestic consumption and preparation for upcoming Tet rice. The remainder is sold to markets such as the Philippines, China, the Middle East and the EU.

What is your opinion on export rice prices from now until the end of the year?

Mr. Do Ha Nam shared that the price of rice and domestic rice increased continuously over the past week. In addition to the problem caused by the impact of storms on rice supply from now until the end of the year, the export contracts that businesses have signed are very large, the export rice price is signed at low prices, so businesses try to to wait to buy at low prices. However, after a waiting period of time, businesses were forced to buy rice to pay the orders to their signed partners.

“Recently, a lot of information has suggested that rice prices are low, causing buyers to pressure domestic businesses. However, businesses are currently taking care of supplying goods for signed orders, so they are not too concerned about new orders.”, Mr. Do Ha Nam said.

Meanwhile, according to some rice exporters, after the low price season, Vietnamese rice returned to winning large quantities at good prices from Indonesia. Accordingly, Vietnamese businesses won 7 out of 12 bidding packages. The total amount of rice that Vietnamese businesses won was 185,000 tons/320,000 tons. The winning price this time between Vietnamese and Myanmar businesses is the same at 563 USD/ton.

However, with the current CIF export price of rice, the market sells up to 630 USD/ton, so for businesses that have bought enough rice for export, it is okay, but for businesses that have not bought enough, they will encounter problems. price risk.

It is not easy to make comments on export rice prices from now until the end of the year, however, the trend of export rice prices decreasing from now until the end of the year is difficult. The amount of export from now until the end of the year, according to the Vietnam Food Association and reports from ministries and branches, is not much left. Meanwhile, the Philippines is expected to import about 1 million tons of rice from Vietnam.

Indonesia – Vietnam’s second largest rice import market – has just announced an invitation to bid for nearly half a million tons of rice, requesting to receive goods in October and November. Accordingly, the Indonesian national logistics agency has just issued a notice inviting rice bidding in September with an amount of up to 450,000 tons – the highest bid amount ever – 5% broken white rice produced in the 2024 crop year (milled for no more than 6 months). According to Indonesia’s requirements, rice must originate from Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Pakistan and will receive goods in October and November.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, storm No. 3 (Typhoon Yagi) caused 190,358 hectares of rice to be flooded and damaged. Talking to reporters from Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Nguyen Nhu Cuong – Deputy Director of the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) – commented that although the export rice granary is located in the Mekong Delta region, However, heavy damage from Storm No. 3 and ongoing floods in the Northern provinces may affect Vietnam’s rice production.

Currently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development is continuing to compile damages. The Ministry also issued an official dispatch to the People’s Committees of provinces and centrally run cities in the Northern region instructing farmers to restore production after storms and overcome crop production after storm No. rice goods.

Experts also expect that export rice output will still be guaranteed thanks to new rice varieties with high productivity and quality. With the increase in imports from partners, our country’s rice exports will still reach the set target. go out.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that the 2024 summer-autumn crop in the Mekong Delta region has basically completed the planting plan, reaching about 99% with 1,469 million hectares of rice. The recent harvest achieved an impressive yield of 6.2 million tons. Localities are actively implementing the 2024 fall-winter crop with 546,000 hectares planted and the 2024 crop with 7,000 hectares sown.

Author: Nguyen Hanh
Source: congthuong.vn